The required win rate all comes down to the payout % on the option you have decided to trade in. The calculation is

Stake ÷ (Stake + profit) X 100 = required win % to break even.

For example let’s say you want to stake ฿0.1 per option with a 70% payout. 70% of ฿0.1 is ฿0.07 profit.

0.1 ÷ (0.1 + 0.07) X 100

Do the brackets. 0.1 + 0.07 = 0.17 therefore

0.1 ÷ 0.17 X 100 = 58.28%

So for 70% payout options you need to win 58.28% of your trades to break even. Let’s see how much this changes if we get a nice high payout % of 85% like we can on FortuneJack. In this example we will invest ฿0.5 per option.

0.5 ÷ (0.5 + 0.425) X 100

Do the brackets. 0.5 + 0.425 = 0.925 therefore

0.5 ÷ 0.925 X 100 = 54.05%

With the higher payout rate we only need to win 54.05% of our options to break even.

## What ABC do I need to win XYZ

To work out how many options you would need to trade, what win rate or how much to invest per option you need to profit a certain amount of money you need to know any 2 of these 3 things to calculate the other.

- Number of trades
- Win rate
- How much to investment per option

In all examples let’s say you want to make ฿1 trading an option that has 80% payout.

- You decide to invest ฿0.1 per option and you have a 60% win rate. You want to know how many options you have to trade to win ฿0.1.
If you finish in the money you win ฿0.08,

if you finish out of the money you lose ฿0.1.

For every 100 options you trade you win 60 X ฿0.08 = ฿4.8 and lose 40 x ฿0.1 = ฿4.

So you are winning ฿0.8 per 100 trades = ฿0.008 per trade.

You want to win ฿1.

฿1 ÷ ฿0.008 = 125 therefore you need to trade 125 options to win ฿1. -
You decide to trade 500 options for ฿0.05 each. You want to know what win rate you need to make ฿1.

1÷500 = 0.002 therefore you need to win ฿0.002 per option.

A winning option wins you ฿0.04 and a losing option losses you ฿0.5.

289 winning options X ฿0.04 = ฿11.56

211 loosing trades X -฿0.05 = -฿10.55

฿11.56 – ฿10.55 = ฿1.01

289 ÷ 500 X 100 = 57.8% win rate.

Therefore you need a win rate of 57.8% to win ฿1.

- You decide to trade 300 options and you know you have a 63% win rate. You want to know how much you have to invest per option to win ฿1.
1÷300+0.00333 therefor you need to win ฿0.00333 per trade.

With a 63% win rate you know you will win 189 trades and lose 111. That is 78 more wins than loses.

Making trades of ฿0.025 will win ฿0.02 if you finish in the money and lose ฿0.025 if you finish out of the money.

You win 189 X ฿0.02 = ฿3.78 and you lose 111 X -฿0.025 = ฿2.775.

฿3.78 – ฿2.775 = ฿1.005.

Therefore you need invest ฿0.025 per option to win ฿1.

Be champions!

## Be the First to Comment